The security sector in Sweden
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March 25, 2022
Background - security issues in Sweden
For some time now, the security situation in Sweden has changed for the worse. Sweden today, faces parallel threats: Serious organised crime, various state actors acting hostile, threats of terrorism and violent extremism.
In twenty years, Sweden has gone from the bottom to the top of the EU's list of deadly violence. Added to this are extensive problems with drugs, fraud and welfare crime with a direct link to organised crime. There are currently 55 geographical areas where local criminal networks are considered to have a negative impact on the local community. The areas are spread over 22 cities – from big cities to smaller towns and are considered to be socio-economically vulnerable. The government is working to provide the police with more powers and access to technology to combat the extensive crime that exists.
Almost half of businesses have been the victim of a crime in the past year, many of them repeatedly. Primarily it concerns thefts, burglaries and vandalism and local security experts have recently assumed that the total costs of crime for Swedish companies exceed €9 billion each year. The crime rate in retail has long been at excessively high levels and the fourth quarter of 2023 was no exception. The Swedish Retail Safety Barometer for the fourth quarter shows that the vulnerability to crime is again increasing. In total, 45% of the stores have been victims of crime or threatening behaviour. The answer to this problem has been said to be more and better security solutions such as; locks, break protection and burglar alarms. Camera surveillance with video analysis and motion detectors at goods intake.
Sweden has at the same time gone from being considered a legitimate target to a prioritised target for terrorist attacks. Earlier in 2023 it was announced that Säkerhetspolisen (the Swedish Security Police) was raising the terror threat level from a three to a four on the five-point scale. The terrorist threat against Sweden is still assessed as a four in 2024. This increased threat against Sweden gives a boost to local companies that work with security solutions. Surveillance, technical solutions and security training are among the things that are in demand to prepare for what may come.
In twenty years, Sweden has gone from the bottom to the top of the EU's list of deadly violence. Added to this are extensive problems with drugs, fraud and welfare crime with a direct link to organised crime. There are currently 55 geographical areas where local criminal networks are considered to have a negative impact on the local community. The areas are spread over 22 cities – from big cities to smaller towns and are considered to be socio-economically vulnerable. The government is working to provide the police with more powers and access to technology to combat the extensive crime that exists.
Almost half of businesses have been the victim of a crime in the past year, many of them repeatedly. Primarily it concerns thefts, burglaries and vandalism and local security experts have recently assumed that the total costs of crime for Swedish companies exceed €9 billion each year. The crime rate in retail has long been at excessively high levels and the fourth quarter of 2023 was no exception. The Swedish Retail Safety Barometer for the fourth quarter shows that the vulnerability to crime is again increasing. In total, 45% of the stores have been victims of crime or threatening behaviour. The answer to this problem has been said to be more and better security solutions such as; locks, break protection and burglar alarms. Camera surveillance with video analysis and motion detectors at goods intake.
Sweden has at the same time gone from being considered a legitimate target to a prioritised target for terrorist attacks. Earlier in 2023 it was announced that Säkerhetspolisen (the Swedish Security Police) was raising the terror threat level from a three to a four on the five-point scale. The terrorist threat against Sweden is still assessed as a four in 2024. This increased threat against Sweden gives a boost to local companies that work with security solutions. Surveillance, technical solutions and security training are among the things that are in demand to prepare for what may come.
The Swedish Security index of 2024
- The threat picture against socially important businesses has increased over the past year,
as 67% of decision makers experience a serious threat picture today. 84% believe that the threat picture will increase further in the next three years.
- Almost all decision-makers state that there is room to do more to reduce risks and security threats. The biggest reasons for not doing more are a lack of time and money.
- 58% of decision makers state that the security budget will increase this year, while 35% state that it will stay the same as previous year.
- Every third decision-maker states that they cooperate to a low extent with other authorities and actors. The result indicates that the businesses that are judged to have comprehensive business protection collaborate to a greater extent with other actors.
- The general public also experiences a significantly greater threat to society than before as 85% feel that the threat to society is serious.
- Almost all decision-makers state that there is room to do more to reduce risks and security threats. The biggest reasons for not doing more are a lack of time and money.
- 58% of decision makers state that the security budget will increase this year, while 35% state that it will stay the same as previous year.
- Every third decision-maker states that they cooperate to a low extent with other authorities and actors. The result indicates that the businesses that are judged to have comprehensive business protection collaborate to a greater extent with other actors.
- The general public also experiences a significantly greater threat to society than before as 85% feel that the threat to society is serious.
The Swedish security sector
The Swedish security sector can be summarised as a prosperous industry with both a good growth and profitability, but with a considerate shortage of personnel.
There is a continued strong growth among the companies that deliver security services and security solutions in Sweden as a recent study by Säkerhetsföretagens Konjunkturbarometer (the Security Companies' business cycle barometer) showed. 84% of security companies increased their workforce during the fourth quarter of 2023. At the same time, 87% of the companies stated that they currently have a shortage of personnel as the demand for security services is growing sharply.
Consolidation is a clear trend that has characterised the security sector in recent years as there is an interest in getting bigger to get a little more economies of scale. Today, the sector consists of a handful of major players that operate on a nationwide and sometimes even Scandinavian level. These players have a combined market share of around 50% and many offer a decentralised organisational model as they see the benefits of continuous local decisions at the companies they acquire. The other 50% of the security sector consists of small, often family-run lock and security companies with a strong foothold in their local market.
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The Swedish security sector is almost three times as big as its Scandinavian neighbours Denmark and Norway. The most recent compilation of the physical security sector in Sweden was made in 2021. At that time it consisted of 1441 companies with a total turnover of €8.5 billion which was then an increase of 50% over the previous ten years. It is assumed that this growth will not culminate in the near future considering the social challenges that exist in the country today.
There is a continued strong growth among the companies that deliver security services and security solutions in Sweden as a recent study by Säkerhetsföretagens Konjunkturbarometer (the Security Companies' business cycle barometer) showed. 84% of security companies increased their workforce during the fourth quarter of 2023. At the same time, 87% of the companies stated that they currently have a shortage of personnel as the demand for security services is growing sharply.
Consolidation is a clear trend that has characterised the security sector in recent years as there is an interest in getting bigger to get a little more economies of scale. Today, the sector consists of a handful of major players that operate on a nationwide and sometimes even Scandinavian level. These players have a combined market share of around 50% and many offer a decentralised organisational model as they see the benefits of continuous local decisions at the companies they acquire. The other 50% of the security sector consists of small, often family-run lock and security companies with a strong foothold in their local market.
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The Swedish security sector is almost three times as big as its Scandinavian neighbours Denmark and Norway. The most recent compilation of the physical security sector in Sweden was made in 2021. At that time it consisted of 1441 companies with a total turnover of €8.5 billion which was then an increase of 50% over the previous ten years. It is assumed that this growth will not culminate in the near future considering the social challenges that exist in the country today.
Security verticals of interest
Locks
The Swedish market for locks has been undergoing a strong change. The digitization of society has a major impact on the industry and more customers are demanding digital locks and security systems for their properties and businesses. Electromechanical/digital locks are getting more common with functions such as keychain/tag or code that can open doors with a mobile phone via remote control. Today there are many digital locks on the market, while only a few are certified by SSF Stöldskyddsföreningen (SSF Theft Protection Association) in Sweden.Access control
Local manufacturers of access control in Sweden have long dominated the local market, but more international manufacturers have been entering the market of late. It has been said that this contributes to more open systems that can be used on popular platforms and secure future integrations of the latest technology. Open standards is mentioned as key, as Swedish real estate companies want vendor neutral systems so they can choose and integrate technology as they wish. The Swedish construction and housing industry is getting more and more digitised and there is now a greater demand for access control systems that can communicate with other connected systems within HVAC and lighting. This IoT integration has become one of the bigger growth areas for access control systems in Sweden.Perimeter protection
Swedish trade fair Sectech had a panel discussion about perimeter protection involving experts that claimed that it is a strong growth market in Sweden. The range of technologies used is said to be wide. Radar, IP cameras, thermal cameras, Lidar (3D laser) and fibre optic sensors are said to be examples of this. Developments in intelligent analysis software, machine learning and deep learning have made it possible to boost the reliability and precision of these systems and it will continue to draw the attention of the sector and its end users during 2024.Camera surveillance
Camera surveillance for crime prevention purposes is becoming increasingly common in Sweden. Using cameras in public environments to prevent crime is something that most Swedes are positive about. The government wants to increase the number of surveillance cameras in the country in 2024. Previously, the goal was set for the police to get 1,600 security cameras in 2024, but now the goal has instead been increased to 2,500 cameras. In addition, the police will be given greater opportunity to use drones and get direct access to external cameras, for example the Swedish Transport Administration's road cameras. The Swedish police is now hoping to get the go-ahead to use technical analysis tools such as facial recognition in real time using AI.Expectations and trends for 2024
Demand for security services and security systems in Sweden is expected to grow in 2024 at a time when crime and insecurity are major challenges for the population, the private and the public sector. As mentioned, 87% of the security companies stated that they are lacking personnel and the market is expecting to recruit over 9,000 new employees in the coming years to keep up with demand. After a long process, 2024 will be the year when Sweden enters NATO. This could mean that many employees in the security sector will move to the defence side which will amplify the need for new recruitment.
The Swedish government has shown that they will work to increase surveillance in public spaces and give the police more freedom in using technology, which some critics say infringes on personal integrity. However, the public has warmed up to more surveillance, as a necessary evil to combat the crime and violence in today’s society.
Since the summer of 2023, there has been a new legislation which means that the Swedish municipalities have a crime prevention responsibility. The municipalities must present concrete action plans for crime prevention work by July the 1st 2024 and a natural progression would be an increase in security investments, which will boost the security sector further. The legislation concerns the following areas: Personnel surveillance and establishment of public order and security, Technical and physical security services, The municipality's procurement, Digital crimes.
There are global security trends that are also relevant in Sweden, of which many were talked about during Sectech 2023. AI and lidar (Light detection and ranging for perimeter protection and surveillance), biometric solutions and cloud solutions within access control together with associated service-based business models were all examples of trends that were highlighted for 2024. Many experts also spoke of a transformation from today's product-oriented operations to service-based business models. Security as a Service (SECaaS) is therefore a trend to keep an eye out for in the Swedish physical security market in the coming years.
The Swedish government has shown that they will work to increase surveillance in public spaces and give the police more freedom in using technology, which some critics say infringes on personal integrity. However, the public has warmed up to more surveillance, as a necessary evil to combat the crime and violence in today’s society.
Since the summer of 2023, there has been a new legislation which means that the Swedish municipalities have a crime prevention responsibility. The municipalities must present concrete action plans for crime prevention work by July the 1st 2024 and a natural progression would be an increase in security investments, which will boost the security sector further. The legislation concerns the following areas: Personnel surveillance and establishment of public order and security, Technical and physical security services, The municipality's procurement, Digital crimes.
There are global security trends that are also relevant in Sweden, of which many were talked about during Sectech 2023. AI and lidar (Light detection and ranging for perimeter protection and surveillance), biometric solutions and cloud solutions within access control together with associated service-based business models were all examples of trends that were highlighted for 2024. Many experts also spoke of a transformation from today's product-oriented operations to service-based business models. Security as a Service (SECaaS) is therefore a trend to keep an eye out for in the Swedish physical security market in the coming years.
